Last updated:   02/08/2023 

                     Outline of My Research

 1. Implications of using money growth in monetary policy rules

• "A New Interpretation of Money Growth Targeting and the Monetarist Experiment" (with Lee Smith) in progress

• "Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests (co-authored with Lee Smith) Journal of Financial Stability, 2019

• "Are Monetary Aggregates Useful in Taylor Rules? Evidence from a DSGE Model with a Financial Sector" (with Lee Smith) working paper

• "Determinacy and Indeterminacy in Monetary Policy Rules with Money" (with Lee Smith) working paper

2. Evidence against superneutrality of money

• "Testing Superneutrality when Money Growth is Endogenous" (with  Lee Smith and Victor Valcarcel) in progress

• "Implication of Endogenous Money Growth for Some Tests of Superneutrality and the Fisher Effect" Economía, 2022

• "The Long-Run Relationship Between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995 (with James Bullard)

 3. Methods for modeling multivariate time series

• "Structurally Interpreting Misspecified Long-run Recursive Vector Autoregressions" in progress

• "The Asymmetric Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (AVARMA) Model" in progress

• "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions" Journal of Macroeconomics, 2000

• "Asymmetric Vector Autoregression" Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, 1993

• "Structural Approaches to Vector Autoregressions" Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 1992

• "Identifying VAR Models under Rational Expectations" Journal of Monetary Economics, 1990

4. Money is useful for measuring the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy

• "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions" (with Logan Kelly, Lee Smith and Victor Valcarcel) Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 2019

• "Solving the Price Puzzle with an Alternative Indicator of Monetary Policy" Economics Letters, 2014 (with Logan Kelly and Victor Valcarcel)

• "Explaining the Liquidity Puzzle: An Application of a New Measure of The Economic Stock of Money" Journal of Banking and Finance, 2011 (with William A. Barnett and Logan Kelly)

 5. The Great Moderation in historical context

• "What's so Great about the Great Moderation?" Journal of Macroeconomics, 2017 (with Victor Valcarcel)

• "The Time Varying Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to Real Output" Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015 (with Victor Valcarcel)

• "Greater Moderations" Economics Letters, 2012 (with Victor Valcarcel)

6. When do recursive empirical models identify structural effects?

• "When Do Long-Run Recursive Identification Restrictions and Wold Orderings Yield Identical  Results?" in progress

• "Structural Inference with Long-Run Recursive Empirical Models" Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2002

• "Structural Information in Recursive VAR Orderings" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1996

 7.  Structural implications of permanent and transitory shock models of real output

• "What Do We Learn from Blanchard and Quah Decompositions of Output when Aggregate Demand may not be Long-run Neutral?" Journal of Macroeconomics, 2013

• "Interpreting Permanent Shocks to Output When Aggregate Demand may not be Neutral in the Long Run" Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 2013

• "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances in the G7 Countries" Journal of Macroeconomics, 1999 (with John V. Nye)

• "Permanent and Transitory Shocks in Real Output: Estimates from Nineteenth Century and  Postwar Economies" Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 1998 (with John V. Nye)

 8. Sources of business cycle fluctuations

• "Is Sticky Price Adjustment Important for Output Fluctuations?" Review of Keynesian Economics, 2015 (with Isaac Kanyama)

• "Postwar Business Cycles in Models where Money is Neutral in the Long Run" (with Taniya Ghosh) under revision

• "Intermediate Monetary Targets and Macroeconomic Fluctuations" Applied Economics, 1996

9. Improved measures of the money stock

• "Forecast Design in Monetary Capital Stock Measurement" Global Economic Journal, 2012 (with William A. Barnett and Unja Chae)

• "Toward a Bias Corrected Currency Equivalent Index" Economics Letters, 2008 (with William A. Barnett and Logan Kelly)

• "The Discounted Economic Stock of Money with VAR Forecasts"  Annals of Finance, 2006 (with William A. Barnett and Unja Chae)